Crusaders vs Moana Pasifika
FRIDAY MAY 31st 2024 APOLLO PROJECTS STADIUM CHRISTCHURCH NZ 5.05 pm
Friday’s opening game between the Crusaders and Moana Pasifika will decide which team stays in finals contention, followed by arch rivals NSW Waratahs and Queensland Reds facing off in Sydney.
High Stakes and Key Players
In a game that will decide their finals aspirations, both hookers will be essential in what will likely be a physical encounter.
Taylor’s return has spearheaded the Crusaders back to title-contending form and the hooker will be out to produce a strong performance to keep their defence alive.
The 25-year-old Moli needs to nullify his effectiveness, particularly around the set-piece, if they wish to compete on Friday.
New Combinations for the Crusaders
Ryan Crotty and Dallas McLeod start in the centres in a new look pairing.
Tamaiti Williams slots straight in for Fletcher Newell.
Taine Robinson and Heremaia Murray come onto the bench.
Potential Farewell for Joe Moody
This may be Joe Moody’s last game for the Crusaders who have not resigned him, as yet, for next season.
Crusaders
Joe Moody, Codie Taylor (c), Tamaiti Williams, Antonio Shalfoon, Quinten Strange, Cullen Grace, Ethan Blackadder, Christian Lio-Willie, Noah Hotham, Fergus Burke, Macca Springer, Ryan Crotty, Dallas McLeod, Chay Fihaki, Johnny McNicholl
Reserves: George Bell, George Bower, Owen Franks, Jamie Hannah, Tom Christie, Mitch Drummond, Taine Robinson, Heremaia Murray .
Moana Pasifika’s Key Changes
For Moana Sekope Kepu starts in his potential final Super Rugby game at tight-head prop.
Henry Taefu comes into the side at outside centre, with Kyren Taumoefolau retaining his spot at fullback after his late inclusion.
Front-rower Ivan Fepuleai will potentially make his debut off the bench.
Moana Pasifika
Abraham Pole, Samiuela Moli, Sekope Kepu, Tom Savage, Allan Craig, Jacob Norris, Sione Havili Talitui (c), Lotu Inisi, Jonathan Taumateine, William Havili, Pepesana Patafilo. Julian Savea, Henry Taefu, Fine Inisi, Kyren Taumoefolau
Reserves: Tomasi Maka, Ivan Fepuleai, Suetena Asomua, Ola Tauelangi, Alamanda Motuga, Aisea Halo, Christian Lealiifano, Nigel Ah Wong .
The Crusaders have won all three of their Super Rugby Pacific matches against Moana Pasifika by an average margin of 24 points per game.
Historical Performance
The Crusaders have won 10 of their last 12 Super Rugby Pacific games at Apollo Projects Stadium.
Moana Pasifika have never won back-to-back games in Super Rugby.
Recent Form and Predictions
What a win it was last week for the Crusaders, Rob Penney’s side handing the Blues only their second defeat of the season. In doing so, the Crusaders kept their finals hopes alive, though they remain only an outside chance of playing again next week. All they can do themselves is beat Moana.
Certainly the Crusaders are a different team to the one that suffered a succession of narrow defeats, with the return of Tamaiti Williams and Ethan Blackadder to the pack, of huge benefit. Moana, meanwhile, produced arguably their best performance of 2024 against the Waratahs, even considering that franchise’s current woes. No. 8 Lotu Inisi goes from strength to strength, while rising fullback Kyren Taumoefolau is another player to watch.
The visitors will however struggle at set-piece here with the Crusaders to put the squeeze on up front, and then unleash their backs who even without Sevu Reece this week look poised to do some damage.
Crusaders to win for me.
Referee. Angus Gardner, Assistant Referees. Matt Kellahan, Jeremy Markey
WARATAHS v QUEENSLAND REDS
FRIDAY MAY 31st 2024 ALLIANZ STADIUM SYDNEY 7.35 pm.
Waratahs
Paddy Ryan, Jay Fonokalafi, Tom Ross, Jed Holloway, Miles Amatosero, Lachlan Swinton, Charlie Gamble, Langi Gleeson, Jake Gordon (c), Jack Bowen, Dylan Pietsch, Lalakai Foketi, Joey Walton, Triston Reilly, Mark Nawaqanitawase
Reserves: Ben Sugars, Lewis Ponini, Brad Amituanai, Hugh Sinclair, Fergus Lee-Warner, Jack Grant, Tane Edmed, Izaia Perese.
Waratahs Key Changes
Paddy Ryan comes straight into the starting side after his Japan stint finished.
Jack Bowen gets his debut start at flyhalf.
Triston Reilly returns on the wing.
Reds
Alex Hodgman, Matt Faessler, Zane Nonggor, Connor Vest, Seru Uru, Liam Wright (co-c), Fraser McReight, Joe Brial, Tate McDermott (co-c), Lawson Creighton, Mac Grealy, Hunter Paisami, Josh Flook, Tim Ryan, Jock Campbell
Reserves: Josh Nasser, Peni Ravai, Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, Ryan Smith, John Bryant, Kalani Thomas, Tom Lynagh, Taj Annan.
Reds Key Changes
Joe Brial starts at number eight against his dad’s old side.
Connor Vest starts for the first time since Round 14 in 2023.
Lawson Creighton returns at flyhalf after missing last week.
Referee. James Doleman, Assistant Referees, Jono Bredin, Fraser Hannon
Historical Performance
The Queensland Reds have won six of their last eight matches against the NSW Waratahs in Super Rugby competitions.
The Queensland Reds have scored 113 points in the final 20 minutes of games this Super Rugby Pacific season – the most of any team – while the NSW Waratahs have conceded 107 points in this same time which is the third-most of any team.
Recent Form and Predictions
If you thought the Waratahs were due a coaching decision, bounce, as often happens in professional sport, last week against Moana, then you couldn’t have been more wrong. After an early disallowed try, NSW were completely outplayed by their hosts for the next 60 minutes and only added a little respectability to the score line late in the game.
Can they get up for the Bob Templeton Cup, then? Surely there is a fair whack of pride on the line, though they have been forced to recall veteran prop Paddy Ryan. There is also a start for Jack Bowen at No. 10, while fullback Mark Nawaqanitawase could use a big game if he wants to play more Test rugby before his NRL switch.
The Reds, meanwhile, are humming and have the perfect opportunity to finetune their finals preps for the Chiefs ,against their great rivals. Lawson Creighton is back at fly-half this week while Joe Brial is a fresh face at No. 8.
While the Waratahs will play with high emotion on coach Darren Coleman’s last outing, their feeble scrum and a lack of general continuity are big hurdles to overcome. The Reds, on the other hand, are playing some excellent rugby.
The Reds are expected to rest a good number of players this week with fifth place secured. Their eye will already be on next week’s quarterfinal against the Chiefs.
Reds to win.
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