3:00 pm SATURDAY SEPTEMBERth,2024 NETSTARTA JUBILEE STADIUM, SYDNEY
Final Round Playoff: Dragons vs. Raiders for 8th Place
Both the Dragons and Raiders come into this match holding a very slender mathematical chance of finishing 8th. With four teams tied on 28 competition points on the NRL ladder, only one will secure a spot in the finals. This final round will effectively serve as a playoff for that last place in the NRL finals.
Final Four Contenders: Dolphins, Knights, Dragons, and Raiders
The final four contenders are the 8th-placed Dolphins and 9th-placed Knights, who will face off in the last match of the round to decide who secures a finals spot. The 10th-placed Dragons and 11th-placed Raiders are the other teams in contention, needing a win and a draw between the Dolphins and Knights to clinch 8th place.
Dragons’ Defensive Woes and Recent Fall
The Dragons enter this match with a defence that has been woefully out of form for a top 8 contender. Over their last 8 games, they’ve conceded 256 points—32 points per game. For comparison, the Wests Tigers, in their last 8 games, have conceded just 36 more points. This defensive frailty is the primary reason the Dragons have quickly fallen out of finals contention. After defeating the Dolphins in Round 17 and moving into 8th place with a points difference of just -30, the Dragons have since dropped to 10th, with their points difference ballooning to -124. It’s been a disheartening fall from grace.
Raiders’ Recent Improvements and Inconsistencies
The Raiders have shown significant improvement in recent weeks, winning 4 of their last 7 games, including back-to-back victories over top 4 sides Penrith and the Roosters. However, they’ve left themselves with too much ground to make up after earlier season setbacks. While their defense has improved from last season and is stronger than the Dragons’, their attack remains inconsistent and less potent. The Raiders have yet to string together three solid performances in a row this year.
Dragons
1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Zac Lomax 3. Moses Suli 4. Jack Bird 5. Mathew Feagai, 6. Lyhkan King-Togia 7. Ben Hunt 8. Francis Molo 9. Jacob Liddle 10. Jack de Belin , 11. Luciano Leilua 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Tom Eisenhuth 14. Connor Muhleisen , 15. Toby Couchman 16. Blake Lawrie 17. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 18. Hamish Stewart , 19. Michael Molo 20. Savelio Tamale 21. Max Feagai 22. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga
Changes for the Dragons
The Dragons come into this match without powerhouse winger Mikaele Ravalawa and edge forward Ryan Couchman. The Raiders will benefit from Moses Suli’s return to the center position, pushing Mathew Feagai to the vacant wing. Lyhkan King-Togia’s promotion to five-eighth will shift Jack Bird to the centers, and Max Feagai will drop out of the 17. Hooker Jacob Liddle returns, with his replacement, Connor Muhleisen, moving to the bench. Additionally, Blake Lawrie will come back and will be available off the bench.
The Raiders are also making several changes. Fullback Jordan Rapana will be replaced by five-eighth Kaeo Weekes, and Elliott Whitehead is unavailable for this game. Ethan Strange will step in at five-eighth, while Jamal Fogarty returns to replace Adam Cook. Trey Mooney will also join the bench. Corey Horsburgh will go from prop to bench, switching with Josh Papalii. Danny Levi will shift from hooker to the bench, switching with Tom Starling. Simi Sasagi will fill the vacant back row position for the Raiders.
Raiders
1. Kaeo Weekes 2. Albert Hopoate 3. Matthew Timoko 4. Sebastian Kris, 5. Xavier Savage 6. Ethan Strange 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Josh Papali’i 9. Tom Starling, 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Simi Sasagi 13. Morgan Smithies 14. Danny Levi , 15. Corey Horsburgh 16. Ata Mariota 17. Trey Mooney 18. James Schiller 19. Zac Woolford , 20. Emre Guler 21. Jed Stuart 22. Adam Cook
Referee, Wyatt Raymond, Touch Judges, David Munro, Phil Henderson, Bunker, Ashley Klein.
Prediction
Toss a coin. Given the tight nature of the matchup and the Dragons’ recent defensive struggles, the Raiders might be the better bet.
Despite the Dragons’ home advantage and marginally better record, the Raiders’ recent improvements could tip the scales in their favour.
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